Prediction markets, explained step by step

New to Kalshi, Polymarket and the rest? Start here. Plain-English guides, honest reviews and today's sign-up offers, all checked and dated.

Find your prediction market app in 30 seconds

Answer four quick questions and we'll match you with the app that fits your phone, your state and what you want to trade.

6 apps compared side by side

7 languages, plain words

Weekly offer and fee checks

0 hype. Risks explained.

1. Learn the basics

A prediction market lets you buy a "Yes" or "No" on a real-world question. Prices run from 1¢ to 99¢ and show the chance the crowd gives it.

What are prediction markets? →

2. Pick an app

Kalshi, Polymarket, OG, ProphetX, Novig and Rebet all work differently. We compare fees, markets and where each one is available.

The best prediction market apps →

3. Make your first trade

Follow a numbered, step-by-step guide for your app, from sign-up to your first withdrawal.

All how-to guides →

Coming up: the World Series (from October 23), the NBA season (from October 20), the Fed meeting (October 27–28) and the midterm elections (November 3). See how to trade the midterms, the NBA, the World Series and Fed decisions.

Which prediction market app is right for you?

If you want…	Try	Offer (checked 27 September 2026)
The biggest markets, on iPhone	Polymarket	Deposit $10, get a $50 trading bonus
Politics, economics and more, fully US-regulated	Kalshi	Trade $25, get $25
Sports only, peer-to-peer prices	ProphetX	Trade $50, earn $75
A simple app that works on any device	OG	Trade $25, get $25 in rewards
Set your own odds on sports	Novig	Deposit $10, get $25 in trade credits
Sports with friends, social feed	Rebet	100% purchase match up to $100

All codes in one place: prediction market promo codes. Not sure yet? Read Kalshi vs Polymarket, the question we get asked most.

Free tools

Odds converter: turn a price into a probability, American or decimal odds, and see your payout.
Profit calculator: profit, breakeven and position size for any trade.

Answers to the most common questions

Why trust HowToPM?

HowToPM is run by Catie Di Stefano, who has spent 15 years in regulated gambling, including as a responsible-gambling ambassador. Every fact that can change (offers, fees, where an app is available) carries the date we last checked it and links to the official source. We earn a commission when you sign up through some links, and we tell you so on every page. How we make money · How we review.

Frequently asked questions

What is a prediction market in one sentence?

It's an exchange where you buy and sell contracts that pay $1 if something happens (for example "Will it rain in New York on Friday?") and $0 if it doesn't, so the price shows how likely people think it is.

What is the best prediction market app for beginners?

For most US beginners, Kalshi is the simplest start because it's fully regulated by the CFTC and works on the web, iPhone and Android. iPhone users who want the biggest markets often add Polymarket. See our full comparison.

Can I lose money on a prediction market?

Yes. If your side loses, the contract is worth $0 and you lose what you paid for it. Only trade money you can afford to lose.